China Strategic Review
China Strategic Review - 6/2019
Release Time:2019-06-14

Belt and Road Initiative?Connects China and the World

Li Changjiu

The "Belt and Road"?Initiative originated in China, and the "Belt and Road" construction belongs to the world. The construction of "Belt and Road" is a great project in the 21st century and a?platform for?open and inclusive development. According to The New Silk Road, a new book published by Peter Francopan, a professor of history at the University of Oxford in England, China has played the role of "catalyst" for global restructuring. Compared with ancient and modern times, it is now "all roads lead to Beijing". In his closing speech at the Round Table Summit of the Belt and Road Forum on International Cooperation on 15 May 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping said: "We firmly believe that the Belt and Road construction is an open and inclusive development platform, and all countries are equal participants, contributors and beneficiaries. We will continue to discuss, jointly build, share originality, respect each other, consult democratically, make joint decisions, cooperate in opening up, and pursue win-win results.

The circle of friends of "Belt and Road"?is getting bigger and bigger

From the first "Belt and Road"?International Cooperation Summit Forum in May 2017 to April 11, 2019, China and Jamaica in the Caribbean region signed a memorandum of understanding, and 127 countries and 29 international organizations have signed cooperation documents with China. According to an article in the New York Times, the number and scale of the "Belt and Road" project is surprising and "far beyond the imagination of science fiction writers".

I.?The smooth flow of Trade is an important part of the co-construction of "Belt and Road"

II. Financing is an important support for the co-construction of "Belt and Road"

III. Policy communication is the main guarantee and forerunner for the co-construction of "Belt and Road"

IV. The connection between the hearts and minds of the people is the humanistic basis for the co-construction of "Belt and Road"

Realizing?the interconnection of "the global village"

"Connecting facilities is a priority direction for the joint construction of 'Belt and Road'.

On the basis of respecting the sovereignty and security concerns of the relevant countries, and with the joint efforts of all countries, the omni-directional, multi-level, complex infrastructure network with railways, roads, shipping, aviation, pipelines, and spatial integrated information networks as the core is being accelerated, and the transaction costs of interregional commodities, funds, information, and technology have been greatly reduced, effectively promoting the orderly flow and optimal allocation of cross-regional resource elements. Mutually beneficial cooperation and win-win development have been achieved. "

I.?If you want to be rich, build roads first, and the?key of?transportation power lies in?the railway.

II. Highway communication in all directions.

III. Port construction and development have a significant impact on the maritime industry.

IV. Oil and gas pipeline construction and energy development are extremely important for developing countries to strengthen complementary and mutually beneficial cooperation.

The construction of "Belt and Road" is steady and far away

From April 25 to 27, 2019, the Second Summit of the Belt and Road Forum on International Cooperation was successfully held in Beijing. The theme of the forum was to jointly build "Belt and Road" and create a better future. A total of 40 leaders, including China, heads of state and government of 38 countries, as well as the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, attended the round-table summit. More than 6000 foreign guests from 150 countries and 92 international organizations attended the forum. At this forum, relevant countries and international organizations signed more than 1000 bilateral documents with China in the fields of transportation, taxation, trade, audit, science and technology, culture, think tanks, and media, which will make important contributions to the building of global connectivity.

I. Peace, security and stability.

II. Docking with the development strategies of the relevant countries.

(I) based on the affordability of each country

(II) to achieve high-quality development

(III) to jointly build "Belt and Road" and put forward the concept of green development and adhere to the road of green development

III. Work together to build a clean “Belt and Road”.

(I) strengthening the building of the legal system and rules

(II) Cooperation and competitive enterprises between countries are the main body

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Belt and Road Initiative: New Journey, New Direction

Fu Mengzi / Zhang Jing

The Second Summit of the Belt and Road Forum on International Cooperation has an extraordinary momentum and unprecedented prosperity (40 heads of state, heads of government and leaders of international organizations, and nearly 6000 foreign guests attended) and yielded fruitful results (the cooperation list covers 283items in six categories). Over the past six years, the practice of "Belt and Road" construction has received extensive support, and the Beijing Summit is a portrayal of the confidence of China and all parties in promoting the building of "Belt and Road" on a global scale, and it is also a new journey and direction for China to jointly discuss and share with other countries and international organizations.

There are many highlights of the Summit Forum, especially in the following three areas:

First, from freehand brushwork to meticulous painting, emphasizing high-quality construction of "Belt and Road". In the specific promotion, we need to do a good job in the combination of three aspects. First, it should link up with the development strategy of the local country and find the meeting point of the specific place, field or industry. Second, it is closely linked to the global value chain. China's innovation-driven development is the general trend. Third, it should be combined with the development concept of Green Silk Road. Connectivity often involves large-scale and long-term development, and some large-scale projects may change the ecological outlook of some areas. If environmental protection issues are not handled properly, they are likely to encounter resistance and opposition from the local people. They are even hyped by some Western media and magnified negative emotions. Therefore, green, environmental protection and sustainability are the inevitable requirements of "Belt and Road" with high quality and high standards.

Second, we should shape a new functional paradigm of international relations, that is, to explore the construction of a global connectivity partnership. The essential feature of the construction of "Belt and Road" is connectivity. President Xi stressed that we should build a global connectivity partnership to achieve common development and prosperity. As the core concept of "Belt and Road", connectivity is not only a physical connection, but also a "trinity" concept of connectivity, including hardware connectivity of transportation infrastructure, software connectivity of rules and regulations, standards and policies, and humanistic connectivity to enhance friendly mutual trust among the people and cultural exchanges.

Third, we will announce a series of major reform and opening up measures, strengthen institutional and structural arrangements, and promote a higher level of opening up to the outside world. The "Belt and Road" initiative has been recognized by all countries in the world and widely supported by the world, bringing positive and new changes to the connectivity of all countries and regions. At a time when globalization is facing a headwind, world economic growth is slowing, protectionism and populism are surging, "Belt and Road" has opened up a new path to global governance and helped to promote economic globalization in a more open, inclusive, balanced and win-win direction. President Xi's speech explained in depth the significance of "Belt and Road" to the governance of new space and to the improvement of the national economy and people's livelihood of all countries and new opportunities. The announcement of a series of major measures for reform and opening up shows that China is providing great impetus for promoting a new type of globalization.

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The Military Existence of Extra-territorial Countries in East Africa and the Risk Prevention of "Belt and Road"

Sun Degang / Zou Zhiqiang

East Africa holds the Suez Canal and the Strait of Mande, connects the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, connects Asia and Africa, and is the gateway to the African continent and the hinterland of West Asia. At the same time, due to the lack of resources, instability, economic backwardness, and prominent contradictions among countries in East Africa, world powers and countries in the Middle East have established military bases in the region, strengthened military deployment, and filled the power vacuum in East Africa. As a result, the contradictions between the world powers, the sectarian contradictions in West Asia, and the original contradictions between countries in East Africa are intertwined, and the situation in East Africa is at risk of "easternization". At present, the major powers outside the region should strengthen international cooperation, take the United Nations as the main body, adhere to the new security concept of "mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, and cooperation", directly face the security problems and governance of people's livelihood faced by East African countries, and promote peace through development. East Africa should be regarded as a platform for foreign powers to establish strategic mutual trust and carry out international cooperation.

I. Military presence of extra-territorial countries in Africa

In recent years, East Africa has become one of the key areas for foreign forces, and some major countries have stepped up their military intervention in the region. Networks of military bases established by foreign powers, networks of agents established by Sunni and Shiite forces, and terrorist networks established by the Islamic State and Al-Qaida are intertwined and interact with each other. Foreign countries have deployed or intend to deploy military forces in East Africa, but the scale and degree of institutionalization are different, which can be divided into four different levels: hub military base, main military base, flexible military presence and paramilitary deployment.

(1) Hub-type military bases refer to large-scale military bases with large garrison scale, complete facilities and playing a pivotal role in interfering in regional affairs.

(2) Major military bases refer to bases where a certain number of armed forces are stationed on the land of other countries, have relatively complete infrastructure, store arms and fuel, and can quickly form combat effectiveness through military mobilization.

(3) Flexible military presence, including temporarily deployed armed forces, technical docking stations and berths, joint military exercise sites, military attache agencies, military supply stations, maintenance bases, overseas arms depots, joint intelligence stations, reconnaissance facilities, aerospace tracking facilities, earthquake monitoring stations, temporary military installations, military patrols, stationing of military trainers and advisers, etc.

(4) Paramilitary deployment, that is, an agreement has been signed with the host country to deploy a military base, but it has not yet been fully implemented. For example, the top-level design of Russian military deployment in the Sudan, Saudi Arabia in Djibouti and Turkey in Djibouti has been completed, but the military base has yet to be built.

II. The influence of the military presence of extra-territorial countries in East Africa

Overseas military power is a symbol of the will of great powers and a tool for projecting military power to key areas. The military deployment of extra-territorial countries in Africa has intensified the "militarization" of East Africa and the "surrogate" of conflicts. At present, the military deployment of foreign countries in East Africa has formed three sets of balance of power: first, the security game of world powers in East Africa, with the United States, France, Japan and other Western powers on one side and Russia on the other, the former focusing on Djibouti military deployment and the latter focusing on Sudan and Egypt; second, the security game between the great powers in the Middle East in East Africa, with Saudi Arabia and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. The third is the confrontation between traditional Islam and modern Islam within the Sunni camp, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on one side and Turkey and Qatar on the other.

(1) The security game between the world powers in East Africa forms the first set of balance of power.

(2) The second set of balance formed by the security game of the great powers in the Middle East in East Africa.

(3) The third set of balance formed by the security game among the members of the Sunni camp in East Africa.

III. Risk Assessment of China's Promotion of "Belt and Road" in East Africa.

First of all, we should guard against the impact of "militarization" in East Africa on the "Belt and Road" initiative.

Second, the major powers have strengthened their military deployment in East Africa, so that the contradictions in the Middle East have further spread to Africa, and the external environment of China's logistics support base in Djibouti is more complex and changeable.

Third, China needs to provide more common security products in East Africa.

Finally, China needs to guard against the trend of "relying on China for economy and relying on other countries for security" in East African countries.

Conclusion

The East African region, all developing countries, is faced with the arduous task of reform, development and stability. The key to achieving peace is to strengthen strategic communication among major powers outside the region and participate in people's livelihood governance and infrastructure construction. In the spirit of inclusiveness, foreign powers should abandon the practice of "group politics" and "camp confrontation" and carry out in-depth international cooperation around the issues of peace and development in East African countries. East African countries should also abandon the "zero-sum game" thinking, avoid falling into the "Thucydides trap", resolve contradictions, enhance mutual trust, promote peace through development, and promote security through economic integration through connectivity and regional economic integration. Strive to become a successful model of South-South cooperation. On September 4, 2018, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit was held in Beijing on the theme of "win-win cooperation and work together to build a closer community with a shared future between China and Africa". Under the framework of "Belt and Road" international cooperation, China and African countries are building a closer community of interests and a community of destiny. East Africa is one of the important areas of China-Africa cooperation and will certainly become a new bright spot and new example of international cooperation with Africa.

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The Role of Shanghai Cooperation Organization from the Perspective of Global Road

Yu Sui

The complex and changeable international situation makes the task of global governance more and more onerous and urgent. What people are concerned about is what role the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is generally optimistic, should and can play in global governance.

Among the international organizations formed after the Cold War, the SCO can be regarded as the most successful cross-regional organization in the sense of participating in global governance.

The SCO, which covers half of the world's population and 3/4 of Eurasia, demonstrates the relative stability of long-term security, although there are still dangers that cannot be underestimated. Of course, we do not have to praise the achievements of the SCO too much, but there is no reason to criticize it as some Western media do. At the beginning of the establishment of the SCO, the author once used such a comment to identify: the significance of the SCO lies first of all in its existence.

It seems that it is very important for the SCO to play a greater role in participating in global governance.

First, we should be self-aware, that is, we should judge the hour and size up the situation and put it in the right position.?A clear understanding of their mission and energy in participating in global governance, which should be done and can be done, which should be done but very difficult, and which do not fall within the scope of the functions of the SCO. From the perspective of global governance, the benefits of expansion should not be overstated, as expansion itself has both advantages and disadvantages. Do not cause internal constraints and external constraints as a result of non-moderate expansion.

Second, continuous self-improvement, that is, we should constantly sum up experiences and lessons and make full use of our strengths and avoid weaknesses.?We should not only grasp the advantages of the SCO itself and carry forward it, but also recognize its own shortcomings and make up for them.

Third, self-innovation, that is, to eliminate drawbacks, innovation and development.?It is necessary to constantly examine and adjust the rules and regulations and specific measures that have been formed in the SCO, push through the old and bring forth the new, and reform the old and the new.

In order to maximize the role of the SCO in global governance, it is necessary to maintain three basic understandings: first, as a kind of soft power, it is necessary to carry forward the "Shanghai spirit" in particular. "Mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, cooperation, respect for diverse civilizations, and seeking common development" is the spiritual pillar of the SCO and a huge spiritual wealth, which is difficult to oppose, has strong vitality, and is of far-reaching significance, and is worth vigorously carrying forward. Second, international organizations are not the bigger the better. The historical experience of the SCO has proved that in-depth development is more practical and important than expanding development, and should be given priority. Third, the SCO is satisfactory on the whole, but its expectations should not be too high to be divorced from reality. As a practical model, it is especially necessary to do a good job in the docking of "Belt and Road" and "one belt, one alliance". Unilateralism and protectionism, which boast "US priority", should not be allowed to infiltrate into the areas of the Cooperation Organization.

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Changes and Prospects of the US-European Relationship

Ding Yuanhong

The alliance between the United States and Europe today stems from the joint military aggression of the United States and Britain against the fascist armed aggression of Germany and Italy during World War II. After World War II, with the restoration of France and being recognized as one of the five victorious countries, as well as the initiative of France to launch the process of European integration, which included Germany, Italy and other defeated countries, in order to "unite and strengthen themselves" and maintain peace in Europe after the war, under the situation of jointly facing the threat of the Soviet Union, the military alliance between the United States and Europe gradually took shape.

As a result of the continuing tension in the US-European alliance, which is on the verge of breaking down, there are mainly the following factors:

I. The disappearance of the "common security threat" has shaken the foundation of the existence of the US-European military alliance.

II. Differences in political ideas between the United States and Europe have become increasingly prominent.

III. Differences in Foreign Policy between the United States and Europe intensify the contradictions between the two sides.

IV. Growing conflicts of economic interests between the United States and Europe.

From the above, it is not difficult to see that the United States and Europe have serious differences and fierce fighting in the political, economic, financial, military, diplomatic and other fields. However, the "alliance" relationship for many years has inextricably linked the two sides. Globalization, with multinational corporations in the United States and Europe as the main carrier, has made them closely linked in all aspects of the industrial chain, such as financing, production, sales, and so on, veritable "you have me, I have you". Practice has shown that Brexit is difficult and difficult to come to an end, and it is even harder to imagine that the two major economies of the United States and Europe have parted ways. At present, the current situation of US-EU relations, that is, it is no longer an ally, but it is still a competitive and cooperative partner, which may last for quite a long time until the global geopolitical and economic pattern has completely changed. For China, changes and "uncertainty" in US-EU relations will only make it harder and more complex to deal with them separately.

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Sino-US Game is Irrelevent to the Clash of Civilizations

--An Analysis Based on the Characteristics of Chinese and US Civilizations

Zhao Yuanliang

Which type of civilization dominates international politics is bound to have a profound impact on the choice of game mode between countries. When the zero-sum civilization occupies the dominant position in the world, the competition between countries is mostly in the form of Hobbes game. When the non-zero-sum civilization changes from weak to strong and gradually becomes the dominant civilization in the world, Locke game will become a reasonable way for nuclear powers to interact. In the international political pattern, the game between Chinese civilization and American civilization is generally a game between non-zero-sum civilization and half-zero-sum civilization, which provides conditions and possibilities for the formation of Locke game between the two countries.

I. Definition of concepts: the type of civilization and its division standard

(1) the concept of civilization.

(2) the types and division criteria of civilization.

II. The dual characteristics of American civilization

(1) the zero-sum characteristics of American civilization.

(2) American civilization also has the characteristics of non-zero sum.

III. Comparison between China and the United States: civilized state and non-zero-sum characteristics

(1) Both China and the United States are civilized countries.

(2) There are different proportion of non-zero-sum civilization in the civilization system of the two countries.

IV. Sino-US Trade Game has nothing to do with "clash of civilizations"

In the interactive relationship of civilization, due to the rise of Chinese civilization, international politics will show new characteristics. When the non-zero-sum civilization (such as Chinese civilization) gradually flourishes on the world stage, the world politics will show the political interaction mode of non-zero-sum game. From the era of vicious competition of "fighting for everyone" to the era of Locke benign competition of cooperation and mutual benefit, this is bound to inject new positive energy into the political game of all countries in the world. The principle of international relations within the scope of Chinese civilization will place more emphasis on "harmony" as the center, emphasizing the community of responsibility, the community of interests and the community of destiny. The recent "Belt and Road" initiative put forward by China, which advocates the principle of joint discussion, joint construction and sharing, is an example of the benign interaction between Chinese civilization and other civilizations in the world. It can be said that Chinese civilization provides the world with a great possibility of progress involving peace and healthy competition. This kind of great power relationship based on the game of non-zero-sum civilization can provide the favorable conditions of Locke game for the future of China and the United States, and the Hobbes law of international relations is not an inevitable option in the game of Sino-American civilization. The respective non-zero-sum characteristics of Sino-American civilization will be embedded in the Sino-American political game.

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The 15th Anniversary of China-ASEAN Establishing Strategic Partnership

Lu Jianren / Cai Qi

2018 marks the 15th anniversary of the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and ASEAN. Since the establishment of dialogue relations between China and ASEAN in 1991, the two sides have developed into good neighbors, good friends and strategic partners. 2018 is the opening year of the second 50 years of ASEAN, the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up, and the fifth anniversary of the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The relationship between China and ASEAN is in a critical period of connecting link between the preceding and the following, and the steady development of bilateral relations is conducive to regional and even global economic growth and security and stability. This paper reviews the course of cooperation between China and ASEAN in 2018, analyzes the challenges of the current international situation to China-ASEAN relations, and looks forward to it.

I. General Situation of China-ASEAN Relations in 2018

In 2018, China and ASEAN made outstanding cooperation and progress on political, economic and South China Sea issues, laying the foundation for the steady development of bilateral relations in the next stage.

(I) Politics

In 2018, China exchanged visits with Singapore, the Philippines, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and other countries. At the same time, China and ASEAN have ushered in the 15th anniversary of the establishment of a strategic partnership. Both President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang attach great importance to the new stage of China-ASEAN relations and strive to achieve steady development of bilateral relations.

1. The diplomatic highlights of the heads of state of the two sides have emerged frequently

2. Steady development of China-ASEAN relations

(II) Economy

In 2018, the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN has been continuously strengthened, and the two sides have made a series of achievements in the fields of trade, investment, and the upgrading of CAFTA.

1. Trade

2. Investment

3. CAFTA upgrade construction

(III) South China Sea issue

II. The Impact of the New International Situation on China-ASEAN Relations and New Challenges

With the sudden change of the global situation in 2018, the US trade protection policy has triggered protests around the world, and Sino-US trade frictions have become a common concern of the whole world. On the other hand, after China actively promoted the "Belt and Road" initiative, the Trump administration's "India-Pacific Strategy" was officially unveiled. These new situations will bring new influences and challenges to the future relations between China and ASEAN.

(I) the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China-ASEAN relations

(II) the impact of the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative on China-ASEAN relations

(III) the influence of the "India-Pacific Strategy" of the United States on China-ASEAN Relations

III. Development Trend of China-ASEAN Relations

Although the current international and regional situation is complex, the overall relationship between China and ASEAN is still positive. Although there are waves in the South China Sea issue, as long as China and ASEAN make concerted efforts, they will certainly be able to prove to the world that both sides can effectively maintain regional security and stability.

(I) China-ASEAN 2030 Vision

(II) Progress in the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and prospects for the South China Sea issue

(III) Building a community with a shared future between China and ASEAN

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The Influence of Cultural Values on the Design and Development of Social Security System

--A Case Study from Singapore, Sweden and the United States

Yang Yiyong / Dang Siqi

I. Introduction

Although social security is a artificially designed system, from the development practice of social security in various countries, any social security system is not produced in isolation, nor can it exist and develop in isolation. The choice of social security system model is closely related to the country's historical and cultural tradition, social and cultural environment and value orientation. Francis Hutchison, the father of philosophy, once proposed that the definition of system includes cultural factors. Although the system depends on individual choice, there is no isolated individual, and individual choice is rooted in the social and cultural structure. Max Weber made a long-term exploration and study of the relationship between Eastern and Western institutions and cultures, and came to the conclusion that a new social system or a new economic system came into being. There must be a kind of corresponding cultural spirit and cultural values. From the point of view of the relationship between institutional generation and change and culture, culture plays a key role in the path choice in institutional change. Therefore, the trend and evolution path of social security system are also influenced by culture and values. When studying the social security system, we must focus on the background of our own culture and values.

The culture of a country can be understood as a collection of people's beliefs, ideologies, customs and lifestyles, while values are the quintessence of culture and the consensus and basic views gradually reached by people in the long cultural history. This paper will further clarify the different development paths of the social security system under different cultural values through the comparative analysis of Singapore, Sweden and the United States.

II. Confucian Culture and Singapore Central Provident Fund System

III. Cooperative Doctrine and Swedish Social Security System

IV. Individualism and American Social Security System

V. Conclusion and Enlightenment

Through the above comparative study of the social security system models of Singapore, Sweden and the United States, it can be found that the differences in national cultural values lead to different social security system models in terms of security level, coverage, redistribution adjustment and so on. The Confucian culture, which pays attention to self-reliance and family ethics, has created Singapore's unique central provident fund system; under the influence of Christ Lutheran, the cooperative culture of unity and sharing has promoted Sweden to become a "welfare window" country; the individualism of self-struggle and work ethics has a far-reaching impact on the market-oriented social security system in the United States. As the cultural anthropologist Malinovsky mentioned, "the system is the real unit of cultural analysis". To some extent, what kind of culture and values will have what kind of institutional origin and institutional changes. Culture, as an endogenous variable of social security, affects the choice of social security system. At the same time, the social security system is also the concrete embodiment of a country's culture. The development and reform of social security depends not only on the level of economic and social development, but also on the accumulation of their traditional culture and the acculturation of realistic culture. The choice of the trend of China's social security system can not copy the model of foreign social security system, based on the historical and realistic conditions of our social economy, but also based on the cultural values of our country. The advanced experience of other countries should be integrated into the soil of local cultural value, so as to explore the road of social security development with Chinese cultural characteristics.

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